The year 2025 presents a financial landscape shaped by various geopolitical and economic factors. Investors must adapt their strategies to maximize returns and mitigate risks.

Impact of Global Policies

Recent global policies have significantly impacted the world economy, affecting various sectors and regions. Here are some key effects:

1. Rise in Global Inflation

Since 2021, inflation has risen significantly across several regions:

• • Worldwide: Increased from 1.9% in 2020 to 8% in August 2022.
  • Europe and Central Asia: Increased from 1.2% in 2020 to 9.1% in August 2022.
  • Latin America and the Caribbean: Increased from 1.4% in 2020 to 9.9% in August 2022.

This increase is attributed to expansive monetary policies, supply chain disruptions, and international conflicts.

2. U.S.-European Union Trade War

Former President Donald Trump’s administration imposed a 25% tariffon European steel and aluminum. In response, the European Union implemented countermeasures totaling €26 billionon U.S. imports. This escalation has created uncertainty in industries such as metallurgy and has affected exporting companies.

3. Threats of New Tariffs

Recently, Trump threatened to impose a 200% tariff on European alcoholic products, such as champagne and wine, in response to EU measures. For example, Spain exported wine to the United States valued at €313 million in 2023, demonstrating the potential economic impact of these tariffs.

4. Impact on Financial Markets

The uncertainty generated by tariff policies has impacted financial markets:

• •  Wall Street:
    • Dow Jones dropped 5%
    • S&P 500 dropped 6%
    • Nasdaq dropped 10% in the past month.

5. Effects on the Metal Industry

Trump’s unpredictable trade policies have negatively impacted metal sector businesses, particularly in regions like Valencia, Spain, where exports of steel and aluminum to the U.S. are valued at €36 million annually. This uncertainty complicates business planning and may create ripple effects in industries such as automotive and electronics, which account for 12% of the industrial GDP.

Growing Sectors

Defense and Security: Increasing geopolitical tensions have boosted investments in the military sector. Europe is set to allocate up to €800 billion over the next four years. Companies like Rheinmetall, Thales, and Lockheed Martin are leaders in this industry.
Renewable Energy: Colombia is advancing in offshore wind energy projects, with nine companies, including Ecopetroland Celsia, interested in developing between 1,000 and 3,000 megawatts along the Caribbean coast.

Recommendations for Investors

• • Diversification: Incorporate assets from both emerging and traditional sectors to balance your portfolio.
  • Constant Monitoring: Stay alert to political and economic changes that could affect investments.
  • Professional Advisory: Rely on experts to provide updated insights and personalized strategies.

Conclusion

Adapting to the new market dynamics in 2025 is crucial. A well-informed and flexible strategy will enable investors to seize opportunities and confidently navigate challenges.